Table of Contents
- Why the Inflation Report Still Matters
- Shutdown Exceptions: Who’s Getting Called Back?
- How This Affects Social Security Recipients
- A Rare Move—But Not Unprecedented
- What to Expect from the September CPI Data
- Sources
Inflation Report Still Critical Amid Shutdown Chaos
Even as much of the federal government grinds to a halt during the current shutdown, one key economic report is getting special treatment: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is recalling select staff to ensure the inflation data is published on schedule—because it directly impacts millions of Americans.
The reason? This report isn’t just another economic indicator. It’s the official basis for calculating the annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for Social Security beneficiaries—more than 70 million retirees, disabled individuals, and survivors who depend on those payments.
Shutdown Exceptions: Who’s Getting Called Back?
Under normal shutdown rules, non-essential federal employees are furloughed. But the BLS has classified CPI production as “excepted activity” under the Antideficiency Act—a legal carve-out for functions tied to imminent statutory obligations.
“This isn’t optional,” said a senior BLS official familiar with the planning. “Congress mandated that COLA be based on CPI data. If we miss the deadline, it could delay benefit adjustments for next year.”
Key Facts About the CPI Exception:
- Only a skeleton team is returning—roughly 30–40 analysts and data processors.
- The full economic news release will still be published on October 10 as scheduled.
- Other BLS reports (like jobs data) may be delayed or canceled during the shutdown.
How This Affects Social Security Recipients
For seniors and others on fixed incomes, the COLA is a lifeline. With inflation still above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, many are counting on a meaningful increase in 2026 benefits.
Last year’s COLA was 2.5%. If September’s CPI shows persistent price pressures—especially in housing, food, or healthcare—the 2026 adjustment could be higher. But if inflation has cooled more than expected, the bump might be modest.
Either way, timely data ensures the Social Security Administration can finalize payments by law in early November.
A Rare Move—But Not Unprecedented
This isn’t the first time CPI work continued during a shutdown. During the 2018–2019 35-day shutdown, the BLS also prioritized the December and January CPI reports for the same reason.
“It’s a quiet but vital safeguard,” said economist Maya Rodriguez of the Brookings Institution. “It shows that even in political gridlock, some systems are designed to protect vulnerable Americans.”
What to Expect from the September CPI Data
Economists currently project a year-over-year inflation rate of around 2.8%—slightly lower than August’s 2.9%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) may show more stickiness, particularly in services.
Markets will watch closely. While the Federal Reserve has signaled a potential rate cut later this year, any surprise uptick in CPI could delay that move.
For everyday Americans, though, the real stakes are simpler: Will their Social Security check stretch further next year? Thanks to this emergency exception, we’ll know soon—and on time.
