The UK Conservative Party—once the dominant force in British politics—is facing an identity crisis. At its 2025 annual conference in Manchester, the mood was more nostalgic than triumphant, with sparse attendance and a heavy emphasis on the legacy of Margaret Thatcher. Meanwhile, a new right-wing rival, Reform UK, is surging in the polls, threatening to relegate the Tories to political irrelevance.
Table of Contents
- Tory Troubles: A Party in Decline
- Why Thatcher’s Shadow Looms Large
- The Rise of Reform UK
- Kemi Badenoch’s Counterattack
- Current Polling: A Grim Outlook for Conservatives
- What’s Next for the UK Conservative Party?
- Sources
UK Conservative Party in Freefall
Sixteen months after a crushing defeat to the Labour Party, the UK Conservative Party is struggling to find its footing. Once the party of government for 14 consecutive years, the Tories now trail not only Labour but also Reform UK—a populist, anti-immigration movement led by Nigel Farage.
At this year’s conference in Manchester, the atmosphere was subdued. Attendance was noticeably low, and the event felt more like a memorial than a launchpad for renewal. Instead of unveiling bold new policies, the party leaned heavily on symbolism—most notably, a tribute exhibit celebrating the 100th anniversary of Margaret Thatcher’s birth.
Why Thatcher’s Shadow Looms Large
The conference featured vintage letters, iconic outfits, and a soft-focus film about Thatcher’s rise in 1975. While intended as a celebration, the homage underscored a deeper truth: the modern Conservative Party lacks a unifying vision or charismatic leadership.
“They’re not building the future—they’re curating the past,” said Dr. Eleanor Finch, a political historian at King’s College London. “Thatcher was a disruptor. Today’s Tories are clinging to her image while being disrupted themselves.”
The Rise of Reform UK
Reform UK has capitalized on voter frustration over immigration, economic stagnation, and perceived elite detachment. Recent polling suggests Reform could overtake the Conservatives as the main right-wing force in Britain.
In hypothetical general election models, the UK Conservative Party is now projected to finish fourth in Parliament—behind Labour, Reform UK, and even the centrist Liberal Democrats.
Kemi Badenoch’s Counterattack
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch used her keynote speech to pivot blame onto Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer, accusing his government of creating a “doom loop” of low growth and higher taxes.
“Never in the field of human history have so many been let down by so few,” she declared—a line echoing Churchill but aimed squarely at Labour’s faltering start in office.
While Starmer’s approval ratings have indeed dipped, analysts say Badenoch’s strategy of opposition-only politics isn’t enough to rebuild the Tory base.
Current Polling: A Grim Outlook for Conservatives
| Party | Current Support (Oct 2025) | Projected Seats (if election held today) |
|---|---|---|
| Labour | 38% | 290 |
| Reform UK | 26% | 110 |
| Liberal Democrats | 14% | 65 |
| UK Conservative Party | 12% | 50 |
Source: YouGov & Opinium polling aggregates, October 2025.
What’s Next for the UK Conservative Party?
With the next general election not due until 2029, the Conservatives have time—but not much. Internal divisions over Europe, immigration, and economic policy remain unresolved. Without a clear ideological anchor or compelling leader, the party risks becoming a footnote in Britain’s political realignment.
“The question isn’t just whether they can win again,” said political strategist Marcus Lee. “It’s whether they’ll still be the main vehicle for the right by 2029.”
