Table of Contents
- Miran’s Bold Stance on Interest Rates
- Why He Thinks Inflation Fears Are Overblown
- Housing Data Could Drive Faster Cuts
- Tariffs, Neutral Rates, and Immigration
- Defending Fed Independence Amid Dual Roles
- Sources
Fed’s Miran Pushes for Aggressive Rate Cuts Now
Stephen I. Miran, the newest member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, is making waves with his urgent call for deeper and faster interest rate cuts—arguing that current policy is unnecessarily restrictive and risks triggering a recession.
In a candid October 31, 2025 interview with The New York Times, Miran defended his dissent in favor of a half-point rate cut (instead of the Fed’s modest 0.25% reduction), warning that delaying easing could do more harm than good to the labor market and broader economy.
Why He Thinks Inflation Fears Are Overblown
Miran challenges the prevailing narrative that inflation remains a serious threat. He argues that much of the recent price pressure—particularly from tariffs—is not the kind of demand-driven inflation that monetary policy should target.
“Tariffs are more like a tax,” Miran explained. “They cause relative price shifts, not broad-based inflation. Monetary policy shouldn’t overreact to fiscal or trade-induced cost changes.”
He also dismissed fears of “second-round effects” from tariffs, noting that businesses and consumers have so far absorbed costs without triggering a wage-price spiral.
Housing Data Could Drive Faster Cuts
A key pillar of Miran’s optimism is shelter inflation—or rather, its rapid decline. He points to market rents, which have been rising at just ~1% annually, far below pre-pandemic levels.
Because official inflation metrics like CPI lag behind real-time rental data by 12–18 months, Miran believes a wave of “disinflation” is already baked in. “The catch-up period is over,” he said. “Now the data should catch down to reality.”
This expected drop in housing costs could offset any stubborn pockets of inflation elsewhere, giving the Fed room to cut more aggressively.
Tariffs, Neutral Rates, and Immigration
Miran also links monetary policy to demographic shifts. He notes that U.S. population growth has undergone “30 years’ worth of change in just three years”—first surging, then slowing—due to volatile immigration patterns.
Because housing supply is relatively fixed in the short run, fewer people mean lower rent pressure, which in turn lowers the “neutral” interest rate—the level at which policy is neither stimulative nor restrictive.
“Neutral has drifted lower,” Miran said. “Policy is now more restrictive than many realize, even if the economy hasn’t fully felt it yet—thanks to lags.”
He added that if immigration policies reversed under a future administration, neutral rates could rise again—showing his framework is dynamic, not dogmatic.
Defending Fed Independence Amid Dual Roles
Miran addressed criticism over his temporary leave from his role as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers while serving at the Fed. He called the concerns “hypocritical,” noting critics would question his independence regardless of his arrangement.
“My tenure is short—I expect to leave by January,” he said. “Going through another grueling confirmation process for just a few extra months makes little sense.”
Still, he emphasized the Fed’s core mission: “We must stick to monetary policy—no climate agendas, no social engineering. Just price stability and maximum employment.”
Sources
The New York Times: Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts – Full Transcript
