In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Netherlands’ 2025 parliamentary election has delivered a major setback to far-right leader Geert Wilders, as the centrist, socially progressive Democrats 66 (D66) surged to a near tie for first place. The election, which Wilders himself forced by collapsing the previous coalition, has instead become a referendum on his brand of politics—and the verdict is clear.
Dutch Election 2025: A Centrist Surge
The focus keyword Dutch election dominated headlines as exit polls revealed a dramatic shift in the political landscape. According to the Ipsos I&O and NOS exit polls, D66, led by the charismatic Rob Jetten, is projected to win 27 seats in the 150-seat Tweede Kamer (House of Representatives). This puts them just ahead of Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), which is expected to secure 25 seats—a significant loss from their previous standing .
This outcome is a remarkable turnaround. Just months ago, Wilders was seen as the presumptive frontrunner after his party’s strong showing in the European Parliament elections. However, his decision to bring down the government in a bid to force a national vote on migration appears to have backfired spectacularly.
Why the Far-Right Lost Ground
Analysts point to several key factors behind the PVV’s decline:
- Voter fatigue: Many Dutch citizens grew weary of political instability and saw Wilders’ power play as self-serving.
- The Jetten effect: D66 leader Rob Jetten successfully framed the election as a choice between a forward-looking, pro-European future and a divisive, isolationist past.
- Urban and expat support: D66 has a strong base among younger, urban, and international voters, a demographic that turned out in force .
The Road to a New Coalition
With no party coming close to a majority, the real battle begins now: coalition talks. The Dutch election result has created a fragmented parliament, but the clear message is a rejection of far-right populism.
| Party | Leader | Projected Seats (2025) | Change from Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats 66 (D66) | Rob Jetten | 27 | Significant Gain |
| Party for Freedom (PVV) | Geert Wilders | 25 | Major Loss |
D66 will now be in a prime position to lead negotiations. Their likely partners include other centrist and center-left parties that are staunchly opposed to forming any alliance with the PVV. This means the next Dutch government is expected to be a pro-EU, progressive coalition focused on climate policy, digital innovation, and social investment.
What This Means for Europe
The Dutch election result is being watched closely across the continent. It serves as a powerful counter-narrative to the rising tide of right-wing populism in Europe, demonstrating that a clear, optimistic, and progressive platform can still mobilize voters and win the day. It’s a blueprint that centrist parties from France to Germany will be eager to study.
Sources
NOS Exit Poll Analysis
Netherlands national elections 2025: The results in pictures
Exit poll: D66 narrowly leading Dutch parliamentary elections
