Table of Contents
- Election Day: A Referendum on the Far Right
- Wilders’ Rise—and Possible Fall
- Coalition Challenges Ahead
- Key Issues Driving Voters
- Voices from the Polls
- What’s Next for Dutch Politics?
- Sources
Netherlands Election: A Referendum on the Far Right
On Wednesday, October 29, 2025, Dutch voters headed to the polls in a high-stakes parliamentary election that many are calling a referendum on far-right politics. With 150 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs, the outcome could reshape not just the Netherlands—but signal broader trends across Europe.
At the center of the storm is Geert Wilders, the long-time anti-Islam, anti-migrant populist whose Party for Freedom (PVV) triggered the collapse of the governing coalition just months ago. Now, voters must decide whether to reward or reject his brand of nativist politics.
Wilders’ Rise—and Possible Fall
Wilders stunned the political world in 2023 when his PVV surged to a landslide victory. Yet, despite winning the most seats, he couldn’t become prime minister—no coalition partners would accept him as leader.
In June 2025, Wilders pulled his party out of the fragile governing alliance, citing insufficient action on migration. His 10-point plan included deploying the military to patrol borders and closing asylum centers. The move forced a snap election but may have backfired.
Recent polls suggest the PVV is still leading—but losing ground. Some former supporters are shifting allegiance to even more hardline parties like JA21, while others are returning to centrist or left-leaning options such as the Green-Labour alliance, D66, and the Christian Democrats.
Coalition Challenges Ahead
No single party is expected to win a majority in the 150-seat parliament. In fact, up to 16 parties may secure representation out of 27 running—a recipe for complex negotiations.
Critically, most major parties have ruled out working with Wilders’ PVV. If that stance holds, the PVV could be locked out of government entirely—leaving Wilders once again as a powerful opposition figure but not a governing one.
Potential prime minister candidates include:
- Henri Bontenbal – Christian Democrats
- Frans Timmermans – Center-left alliance
- Rob Jetten – D66 leader, gaining momentum
The current caretaker prime minister, Dick Schoof—a politically independent former intelligence chief—was a compromise pick after Wilders withdrew his name last year. Whether he stays on temporarily depends on how long coalition talks take, which experts say could stretch for months.
Key Issues Driving Voters
Migration remains the dominant theme, especially asylum policy. “It’s such an easy issue to connect everything else to,” said Henk van der Kolk, political scientist at the University of Amsterdam.
Politicians routinely link migration to housing shortages, rising rents, and crime—even though asylum seekers make up only about 12% of all migrants. Most newcomers are students or essential workers filling labor gaps in an aging society.
Still, the narrative sticks. With home prices soaring and supply tight, blaming “outsiders” offers a simple explanation for complex problems.
Voices from the Polls
Not all Dutch voters are buying the anti-migrant message. In Rotterdam, 75-year-old Gerda Mulder said after voting: “I am strongly opposed to the right-wing populist trend that has also taken hold in the Netherlands and the rest of Europe.”
In Amsterdam, 25-year-old Else Bijl echoed a growing desire for stability: “I’m hoping for a constructive collaboration—not a repetition of the last round.”
After elections in 2021, 2023, and now 2025, many citizens are weary of political chaos and crave reliable governance.
What’s Next for Dutch Politics?
The Netherlands’ election results could serve as a bellwether for Europe. As nations from France to Germany grapple with rising far-right influence, the Dutch outcome may reveal whether voters punish parties that destabilize governments—even if they agree with their policies.
If Wilders’ PVV loses significant ground, it might signal a turning point. But if it holds or grows, expect more pressure on mainstream parties to either isolate or accommodate the far right.
Sources
The New York Times: The Netherlands’ Election Is a Referendum on the Far Right
