In a move that has stunned analysts and reshaped the dynamics of the Gaza conflict, Hamas has agreed to a sweeping deal with Israel to release all remaining hostages. But this isn’t just another ceasefire—it’s a calculated gamble that could cost the militant group its last remaining leverage, with no ironclad promises that its core demands will ever be fulfilled.
Why This Deal Is Different
Unlike previous short-term truces—like the November 2023 agreement that saw 150 Palestinian prisoners released for a four-day pause in fighting —this latest framework aims for finality. According to reports, Hamas has committed to releasing all remaining hostages in one coordinated action, while Israel agrees to withdraw its forces to a mutually agreed line .
But here’s the catch: Hamas is surrendering its most powerful bargaining chip—live hostages—before any long-term political concessions are guaranteed. This raises a critical question: Is Hamas betting on goodwill… or is it out of options?
Hamas’s Risky Calculus
For over a year, hostages have been Hamas’s primary leverage. Their release now, without verified commitments on key issues like a permanent ceasefire, full Israeli withdrawal, or the return of displaced Palestinians, represents a massive strategic shift.
Recall February 2025: Hamas released six living hostages as promised, yet Israel failed to reciprocate by freeing the agreed-upon 620 Palestinian prisoners . That broken trust looms large. So why go all-in again?
Possible reasons include:
- Mounting international pressure—especially from Qatar, Egypt, and the U.S.—to de-escalate.
- Deteriorating conditions in Gaza, making prolonged conflict unsustainable.
- Internal fractures within Hamas leadership, pushing for a face-saving exit.
What Israel Gains (and What It Owes)
Israel secures the return of its citizens—a non-negotiable priority for Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government. In exchange, it must:
| Hamas Commitment | Israeli Commitment |
|---|---|
| Release all remaining hostages at once | Complete military withdrawal to agreed line |
| Allow humanitarian access | Facilitate aid corridors |
| Enter “further negotiations” on peace terms | No binding promise on prisoners or ceasefire |
Notice the asymmetry: Hamas’s obligations are immediate and verifiable. Israel’s are vague and deferred . Once hostages are handed over, Hamas’s negotiating power evaporates.
Can This Deal Hold?
The timeline is tight. Once Israel completes its withdrawal, a 72-hour countdown begins—during which Hamas must release every hostage, quietly and simultaneously . Any deviation could collapse the entire framework.
And even if successful, the deal only addresses Phase One. Core issues—Gaza’s governance, reconstruction, prisoner releases, and a lasting ceasefire—remain unresolved and subject to “further talks” .
What Comes Next?
If Hamas follows through, it may earn temporary relief and global sympathy. But if Israel reneges—as it did in February —the group risks appearing both weakened and naive. Conversely, if Israel honors the deal, it could pave the way for a broader settlement.
Either way, the world is watching. Because this isn’t just about hostages anymore—it’s about whether diplomacy can survive in a landscape built on broken promises.
