The Great Storm of 1987: How a Forecasting Blunder Left Britain Reeling
On the night of October 15, 1987, few in southern Britain suspected that one of the most catastrophic weather events in modern UK history was about to strike. The Great Storm of 1987—a tempest with hurricane-force winds—would go on to claim at least 18 lives, flatten 15 million trees, and cause over £1 billion in damage. But what made the disaster even more shocking was the fact that it caught the nation’s meteorologists almost entirely off guard.
A Forecast That Missed the Mark
Just hours before the storm hit, veteran BBC weather presenter Michael Fish delivered what would become one of the most infamous lines in British broadcasting history: “Earlier on today, apparently, a woman rang the BBC and said she heard there was a hurricane on the way… Well, if you’re watching, don’t worry—there isn’t.”
The next morning, southern England woke to devastation. Winds exceeding 100 mph had torn through London and the southeast, toppling centuries-old trees, ripping roofs from homes, and plunging entire communities into darkness. Fish’s reassurance—though technically referencing a separate Atlantic hurricane—became a symbol of a catastrophic forecasting failure.
Human Impact and National Trauma
For many families, the storm was a personal tragedy. In one poignant memory, Fish’s 11-year-old daughter Nicola found a note slipped under their front door the morning after: “Are you going to resign?” Reporters had gathered outside their home, demanding accountability from the man whose words had offered false comfort to millions.
“I remember just finding that really shocking,” Nicola recalled decades later, seated beside her father in the same London house where the note had landed. “Really, really shocking.”
Why the Forecast Failed
At the time, the UK’s meteorological infrastructure relied heavily on surface observations and limited satellite data. Computer models were primitive by today’s standards, and the storm’s rapid intensification over the Bay of Biscay wasn’t captured in time. Forecasters misjudged both its track and its strength, believing it would veer out to sea.
The storm’s ferocity was historic—comparable to the Great Storm of 1703—and remains the most severe to hit England since. It exposed critical gaps in early-warning systems and prompted a complete overhaul of the UK’s weather forecasting protocols.
Legacy of the Great Storm
In the storm’s aftermath, the Met Office invested heavily in numerical weather prediction, satellite technology, and real-time data assimilation. Today’s forecasts, capable of predicting major storms days in advance, owe much to the painful lessons of 1987.
By the Numbers: The Great Storm of 1987
| Metric | Impact |
|---|---|
| Fatalities | 18–19 confirmed deaths |
| Trees felled | Approx. 15 million |
| Peak wind gust | 115 mph (at Shoreham, Kent) |
| Economic damage | Over £1 billion (1987 value) |
| Power outages | Over 1 million homes affected |
