Air travelers across North America may soon have a smoother ride, thanks to a groundbreaking new model of in-flight turbulence developed by leading physicists. With severe turbulence incidents on the rise—up by 55% over the North Atlantic since 1979 —this innovation arrives just in time to address growing safety and comfort concerns.
Why Turbulence Is Getting Worse
Clear-air turbulence (CAT), which occurs without visual cues like storms or mountains, is becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Warmer global temperatures are amplifying wind shear in the jet stream, creating more chaotic airflows at cruising altitudes .
“Climate change is increasing the temperature difference between warm and cold air masses that collide to form the jet stream.” — Aviation & Climate Research
Turbulence Trends Over Key Flight Corridors (1979–2020)
| Region | Severe CAT Increase | Moderate-or-Greater CAT Increase |
|---|---|---|
| North Atlantic | 55% | 37% |
| Contiguous U.S. | 41% | Not specified |
| Southern North Atlantic | 155.9% | — |
Source: Williams et al. (2023), Prosser et al. (2023)
The New Physics Breakthrough
Dr. Bjorn Birnir of UC Santa Barbara and Dr. Luiza Angheluta-Bauer of the University of Oslo have published a novel turbulence model in Physical Review Research that merges two classical frameworks: Lagrangian and Eulerian mechanics .
- Lagrangian view: Tracks individual air particles (like a leaf in a river).
- Eulerian view: Observes airflow at fixed points in space (like water flowing past a rock).
By unifying these perspectives, the model captures the full complexity of turbulent motion—especially its chaotic, intermittent nature—which could lead to more accurate forecasts and smarter aircraft responses.
How the New Model Works: A Visual Breakdown
🔄 Turbulence Modeling Workflow
- Data Input: Real-time atmospheric conditions (wind, pressure, temperature)
- Dual-Frame Analysis: Simultaneous Lagrangian + Eulerian computation
- Chaotic Pattern Recognition: Identifies “intermittent bursts” of severe turbulence
- Pilot Alert & Aircraft Adjustment: Recommends speed/power changes to mitigate impact
According to Dr. Birnir, the recent Delta flight incident over Wyoming—where unexpected turbulence injured passengers—may have been a case of “severe intermittency in Eulerian turbulence” that this new model could help predict .
What This Means for Passengers & Pilots
While commercial aviation remains extremely safe, passenger confidence has been shaken by high-profile turbulence events. The new model won’t eliminate turbulence, but it could significantly improve:
- ✅ Forecast accuracy for clear-air turbulence
- ✅ Flight planning around high-risk zones
- ✅ Real-time aircraft adjustments (e.g., reducing engine power)
- ✅ Passenger comfort and safety
As retired Purdue aviation professor Thomas Q. Carney notes: “The better the model, the better the forecast—which is what the pilot is going to use” .
For more on how climate impacts flight safety, see our deep dive on [INTERNAL_LINK:climate-change-aviation-risks].
Looking Ahead
This research is part of a broader push in fluid dynamics to tackle what Nobel laureate Richard Feynman once called “the most important unsolved problem of classical physics” . With AI and high-fidelity simulations now accelerating turbulence research , the era of smoother skies may be closer than we think.
For authoritative insights on atmospheric science and aviation safety, visit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Sources
- The New York Times: Now Arriving, a New Theory of In-Flight Turbulence
- Nature: Evidence for Large Increases in Clear-Air Turbulence (Williams et al., 2023)
- Physical Review Research: Spectral Link of Turbulence Constants (Birnir & Angheluta, 2021)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
