In a controversial move that has alarmed national security experts, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has abruptly canceled the release of the quadrennial Global Trends intelligence report—a flagship document used by U.S. policymakers, military planners, and allies to anticipate future threats. Former intelligence officials say the decision stems from politically inconvenient findings, including warnings about authoritarian backsliding, climate-driven instability, and risks posed by domestic extremism .
What Is the ‘Global Trends’ Report?
Published every four years since 1997 by the National Intelligence Council (NIC), the Global Trends report is a nonpartisan, long-range forecast of geopolitical, economic, technological, and environmental challenges likely to shape the world over the next two decades. It is not classified and is widely used in academia, defense strategy, and international diplomacy.
🔍 Did You Know? The 2025 edition was set to be the first to include AI-driven disinformation, biotech risks, and the national security implications of Trump-era democratic erosion.
Why Was the Report Canceled?
According to three former U.S. intelligence officials familiar with the draft, the 2025 Global Trends report contained several findings that clashed with the Trump administration’s messaging:
- Warning about rising authoritarianism—including in allied nations and the U.S.
- Analysis linking climate change to migration, conflict, and military readiness
- Assessment that domestic political violence now rivals foreign terrorism as a top threat
- Critique of shrinking civil liberties under recent executive orders
“Some issues in the document had become politically inconvenient,” one former official told The New York Times .
Tulsi Gabbard’s Role and Controversial Tenure
Gabbard, a former Democratic congresswoman turned Trump ally, was confirmed as DNI in early 2025. Her appointment raised eyebrows due to her past skepticism of U.S. intelligence agencies and her vocal support for Trump’s foreign policy agenda.
Since taking office, she has:
- Disbanded the NIC’s climate security working group
- Replaced senior analysts who worked on democracy and disinformation
- Ordered rewrites of intelligence assessments on election integrity
- Now, canceled the flagship strategic forecasting report
Historical Context: Past ‘Global Trends’ Reports
| Year | Key Prediction | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | Rise of China as global power | ✅ Largely accurate |
| 2012 | Resource scarcity driving conflict | ✅ Confirmed in Sahel, Middle East |
| 2017 | AI and cyber warfare as game-changers | ✅ Seen in Ukraine, election interference |
| 2021 | Pandemic vulnerability and supply chain collapse | ✅ Validated by post-pandemic disruptions |
| 2025 | Never released | ❌ Canceled by DNI Gabbard |
Reactions from Experts and Lawmakers
- Adm. William McRaven (Ret.): “This isn’t intelligence—it’s censorship.”
- Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA): “Canceling Global Trends undermines U.S. preparedness and global leadership.”
- Dr. Amy Zegart (Stanford): “Strategic forecasting is how we avoid surprise. Without it, we’re flying blind.”
- Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY): Defended the move, calling past reports “alarmist and anti-Trump.”
What This Means for U.S. Security
Without the Global Trends report, key institutions lose a vital planning tool:
- Pentagon: Uses it for force structure and R&D investment
- State Department: Bases diplomatic strategy on long-term risk scenarios
- NATO & Five Eyes allies: Align intelligence and defense planning with U.S. forecasts
- Universities and think tanks: Rely on it for research and policy simulations
📉 Impact Flowchart: From Cancellation to Consequences
- DNI cancels 2025 Global Trends report
- No shared threat horizon for U.S. agencies
- Allies lose confidence in U.S. strategic foresight
- Policymakers react to crises—instead of preventing them
- National security becomes reactive, not proactive
For more on how intelligence shapes national policy, see our deep dive: [INTERNAL_LINK:intelligence-and-national-security-strategy].
For historical context on U.S. intelligence forecasting, visit the Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s Global Trends archive.
Sources
- https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/us/politics/gabbard-intelligence-report-cancellation.html
- https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends
- https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/politicization-intelligence-community
- https://www.csis.org/analysis/global-trends-and-us-strategy
