‘Flying Blind in Heavy Fog’: Shutdown Threatens Critical Economic Data
With a federal government shutdown imminent, economists and policymakers are sounding the alarm: the U.S. could soon be deprived of its most vital economic indicators—right when they’re needed most. “Flying blind amidst heavy fog is a dangerous proposition,” warned Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon .
Which Data Releases Are at Risk?
If funding lapses after the Tuesday midnight deadline, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Commerce Department will suspend all operations—including the release of key reports:
- September Jobs Report (scheduled for Friday, Oct. 3)
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September (Oct. 15)
- GDP Preliminary Estimate (Q3, late October)
- Retail Sales, Housing Starts, and Industrial Production from Census Bureau
Shutdown Impact Timeline
| Shutdown Duration | Impact on Economic Data |
|---|---|
| 1–3 days | Minimal; most September data already collected |
| 4–14 days | Delayed releases; reduced analyst confidence |
| 15+ days | Disrupted October data collection; long-term reliability concerns |
Why This Moment Is Especially Risky
The economy is sending mixed signals: job growth has slowed, yet unemployment remains low. Inflation is cooling—but not fast enough. The Federal Reserve is walking a tightrope between cutting rates too soon or too late.
“We are currently seeing an economy that may or may not be at a turning point,” said Martha Gimbel of Yale’s Budget Lab. “Less data is not going to make understanding the economy at such a pivotal time easier” .
Can Private Data Fill the Gap?
Alternative sources like ADP payroll reports or Indeed job postings may offer glimpses—but none match the comprehensiveness or authority of federal data. “The BLS figures are the gold standard,” said Kathy Jones of Charles Schwab .
Compounding the issue: the BLS is already understaffed and led by an acting commissioner after President Trump fired its head in August following a weak jobs report .
[INTERNAL_LINK:U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics]
