Table of Contents
- New York City: Young Voters Defy Expectations
- New Jersey: Democrats Lead Early Vote—but Mail Ballots Skew the Picture
- Virginia: Partisan Balance Holds Steady
- What These Trends Mean for Trump’s 2026 Strategy
- Sources
New York City: Young Voters Defy Expectations
In a city where off-year elections typically draw an older, more conservative electorate, early voting data from New York City is turning assumptions on their head. As of October 31, nearly half a million New Yorkers have already cast ballots in the mayoral race—less than in 2024, but with a striking twist: voters under 30 are showing up in numbers nearly on par with last year’s presidential election.
That’s a potential game-changer for Zohran Mamdani, the democratic socialist frontrunner whose base skews young. A New York Times/Siena poll in September showed Mamdani leading Andrew Cuomo 73% to 10% among voters under 30. Meanwhile, Cuomo and Republican Curtis Sliwa split support among voters 65 and older.
Why This Matters
If younger voters continue turning out at this pace on Election Day, Mamdani’s path to City Hall becomes significantly clearer—even in a race where turnout usually favors older, more establishment candidates.
New Jersey: Democrats Lead Early Vote—but Mail Ballots Skew the Picture
In New Jersey’s governor’s race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli, over 982,000 early and mail ballots have been cast as of October 30. Democrats account for more than half of that total—a familiar pattern, since Democratic voters are more likely to vote by mail.
However, this early advantage may be misleading. In 2024, Democrats held a 12-point registration edge statewide, yet Kamala Harris won by only six points. The same dynamic could play out again: high Democratic mail turnout now doesn’t guarantee Sherrill’s victory if Republican in-person voting surges in the final days.
Ciattarelli, who has remade himself in Trump’s image—talking about “open borders” and courting far-right influencers—is betting that energized MAGA voters will show up on Election Day, even without Trump on the ballot.
Virginia: Partisan Balance Holds Steady
Over 1.23 million Virginians have already voted in the governor’s race between Democrat Abigail Spanberger and Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Unlike New Jersey, Virginia doesn’t register voters by party—but primary participation offers clues.
Among voters with partisan records, 58% are Democrats and 42% are Republicans—the exact same split seen during early voting in 2024. That suggests no major enthusiasm gap this year, despite national tensions over immigration, inflation, and executive power.
With Harris having won Virginia by six points last year, Spanberger enters Tuesday with a slight structural advantage—but not a guaranteed win.
What These Trends Mean for Trump’s 2026 Strategy
Though Donald Trump isn’t on any ballot this week, these races are being watched as the first real test of whether his 2024 coalition—especially gains among Latino and working-class voters—can translate into down-ballot wins.
In New Jersey, where Trump flipped nearly every majority-Hispanic township in 2024, Ciattarelli’s outreach to Black and Latino neighborhoods could signal whether “Trumpism without Trump” is viable. Early data doesn’t yet show a surge in Republican turnout among those groups—but Election Day will tell the final story.
Sources
The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in New York, New Jersey and Virginia
