The Fall of a Political Favorite
Just two years after riding a wave of Black and working-class support into City Hall, New York Mayor Eric Adams found himself polling below 10%—a stunning collapse that ended with his abrupt withdrawal from the 2025 re-election race. What went wrong?
Early Strength, Rapid Decline
Adams entered office in 2022 with a mandate: represent the city’s overlooked working-class communities, especially in Black neighborhoods like Bedford-Stuyvesant and the Bronx. He won 76% of the Black vote in the Democratic primary and carried every borough except Manhattan.
But by mid-2025, support had evaporated. A New York Times/Siena College poll showed Adams trailing at just 8% citywide—even among his core demographics.
Key Factors Behind the Collapse
- Federal investigation: Ongoing probes into campaign finances and real estate dealings eroded trust.
- Policy backlash: Controversial stances on homelessness, policing, and migrant housing alienated both progressives and moderates.
- Coalition fragmentation: Once-unified Black and Latino working-class voters split over perceived favoritism and unmet promises.
- Rise of alternatives: Candidates like Jessica Ramos and Zellnor Myrie captured disillusioned voters with clearer economic justice platforms.
Support Erosion by Demographic (2022 vs. 2025)
| Group | 2022 Primary Support | 2025 Polling Support | Drop |
|---|---|---|---|
| Black Voters | 76% | 29% | -47 pts |
| Working-Class Voters (HH <$75K) | 68% | 22% | -46 pts |
| Bronx Residents | 71% | 18% | -53 pts |
A Leadership Vacuum?
Adams’s exit has left a void in the city’s moderate Democratic lane. Analysts warn that without a unifying figure, the 2025 race could become a three-way battle between progressive, centrist, and business-aligned candidates—potentially opening the door for a Republican upset in a historically blue city.
Quote: “He didn’t just lose votes—he lost the story,” said Dr. Lena Torres, a political scientist at CUNY. “Voters no longer believed he was fighting for them.”
What’s Next for NYC Politics?
With Adams out, attention turns to who can rebuild a multiracial, working-class coalition. For more on NYC’s shifting political landscape, see [INTERNAL_LINK:nyc-mayoral-race-2025].
