India and Taliban officials announced a major diplomatic breakthrough on Friday—just hours before a series of mysterious explosions rocked Kabul, underscoring the fragile and volatile nature of South Asian geopolitics in 2025.
Table of Contents
- Expanded Ties Without Full Recognition
- Kabul Blasts: A Message from Pakistan?
- Deepening Regional Tensions
- What Comes Next for India-Afghanistan Relations?
India and Taliban: Expanded Ties Without Full Recognition
In a carefully calibrated move, India has agreed to restore its diplomatic mission in Kabul to full embassy status—the highest level of engagement since the Taliban retook power in 2021. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar confirmed the upgrade during talks with his Taliban counterpart, Amir Khan Muttaqi, in New Delhi.
While this marks a significant thaw in relations, Indian officials stopped short of granting formal diplomatic recognition to the Taliban government—a distinction that preserves New Delhi’s strategic flexibility while opening doors for humanitarian and economic cooperation.
Jaishankar also announced expanded development aid, including plans to build shelters for Afghan refugees deported from Pakistan and Iran, and a boost in visa allocations for Afghan citizens—a lifeline for many seeking education or medical care in India.
Kabul Blasts: A Message from Pakistan?
Just hours before the diplomatic announcement, multiple explosions shook the Afghan capital late Thursday night. The Taliban’s chief spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, confirmed the blasts but offered no details, saying an investigation was underway.
On social media, speculation ran rampant. Former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and a senior ex-U.S. official suggested the strikes may have been carried out by Pakistan’s military, targeting hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)—a group Islamabad blames for a recent surge in domestic terror attacks.
Pakistan’s military later confirmed it had launched “a series of retribution operations” but did not explicitly confirm strikes inside Kabul. If true, the timing appears deliberate: a stark warning to the Taliban against deepening ties with India.
Deepening Regional Tensions
The India-Taliban rapprochement unfolds against a backdrop of escalating friction between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan, who engaged in a brief military clash earlier this year. Relations between Pakistan and the Taliban—once close allies—have also frayed since the Taliban’s return to power, with frequent border skirmishes and accusations of cross-border militancy.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently accused Afghanistan of harboring TTP militants, and his defense minister vowed to send a delegation to Kabul to demand the dismantling of alleged safe havens. The Kabul explosions may signal Islamabad’s impatience—and willingness to act unilaterally.
What Comes Next for India-Afghanistan Relations?
For India, the outreach to the Taliban represents a pragmatic pivot. After two decades of supporting the U.S.-backed Afghan republic—and suffering deadly attacks on its Kabul embassy in 2008 and a hijacking incident in 1999—New Delhi is now betting on engagement over isolation.
Muttaqi, for his part, emphasized historical ties and invited Indian investment, particularly in Afghanistan’s vast mining sector. “We will not allow any group to threaten others from Afghan soil,” he declared—a line likely aimed at reassuring both India and Pakistan.
Whether this fragile diplomacy can survive the region’s deep-seated rivalries remains uncertain. But one thing is clear: in the new Great Game of South Asia, every handshake is shadowed by a detonation.
