In a dramatic turn of events, the long-stalled Israel-Gaza hostage deal has finally been locked in—with the release of the last 20 known hostages expected to begin Monday morning. After 736 days of war, uncertainty, and heartbreak, families across Israel are bracing for reunions that many feared would never come.
Table of Contents
- Breaking the Deadlock
- Trump’s Sudden Shift
- Netanyahu’s Reluctant “Yes”
- Hamas’ Final Calculus
- What Happens Next?
Breaking the Deadlock
For months, negotiations appeared stuck in a loop of “yes, but”—Hamas agreeing in principle but demanding ironclad guarantees on post-ceasefire governance, while Israel insisted on total military control. But over the weekend, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, backed by President Donald Trump and Jared Kushner, delivered a breakthrough: a streamlined version of Trump’s 20-point plan that focused first on hostage release and prisoner exchange, deferring thornier issues like Gaza’s future administration.
Crowds flooded Hostage Square in Tel Aviv Saturday night, waving photos of captives and chanting “Bring them home!”—a scene that underscored the intense public pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to act.
Trump’s Sudden Shift
President Trump, who initially gave Israel a near-blank check to wage war with minimal U.S. oversight, has pivoted sharply in recent weeks. His change of heart reportedly came after Israel bombed a Qatari safehouse housing Hamas negotiators—an act that not only enraged Qatar but also alarmed Trump, who saw it as jeopardizing his broader Middle East legacy.
“He realized the war was becoming a liability, not a victory,” said a senior administration official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Trump then summoned Netanyahu to the White House in late September and demanded he accept the revised deal—or risk losing U.S. political and military backing.
Netanyahu’s Reluctant “Yes”
Once a staunch opponent of any deal that didn’t include Hamas’ total surrender, Netanyahu now finds himself cornered by domestic and international forces. Polls show over 80% of Israelis support ending the war to bring hostages home—even if it means compromising on military objectives.
Under Trump’s pressure, Netanyahu publicly apologized to Qatar’s emir and signed onto the ceasefire framework. Analysts say he likely hoped Hamas would reject the terms. Instead, the group responded with a conditional “yes”—and Trump treated it as final.
Hamas’ Final Calculus
Hamas, once defiant, is now depleted. With its leader Yahya Sinwar dead, Iranian support crippled after a 12-day war with Israel, and ammunition stocks nearly exhausted, the group’s leverage has evaporated. Palestinian analysts say holding hostages no longer shields Gaza—it fuels justification for continued bombing.
“They realized the longer they waited, the fewer hostages would survive—and the more isolated they’d become,” said Mkhaimar Abusada, a Gaza-born political scientist now based in Egypt.
What Happens Next?
The first phase begins Monday: 20 hostages will be released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Humanitarian aid convoys are already queued at the Rafah crossing. The next phase—establishing a “technocratic” interim government in Gaza backed by an international force—remains fragile and will test the limits of U.S. diplomacy.
For now, though, Israel is allowing itself a moment of cautious hope. As one mother in Tel Aviv told reporters, tears in her eyes: “After 736 days… maybe tonight, my son comes home.”
Sources
- The New York Times – Israel-Gaza Hostages: Here’s the Latest
- The New York Times – Why Now? The Lost Chances to Reach a Hostage Deal
- Interviews with Israeli and Palestinian analysts, October 2025
