Table of Contents
- Trump’s Shadow Campaign in Off-Year Races
- New Jersey: Can Trumpism Win Without Trump?
- California’s Redistricting Gambit and Newsom’s 2028 Play
- The Surprising Shift in Latino Voting Patterns
- Trump’s Last-Minute NYC Power Play
- Sources
Trump’s Shadow Campaign in Off-Year Races
Donald Trump isn’t on any ballot this Tuesday—but his influence looms large over key races in New Jersey, Virginia, and California. Though the former president is currently touring Asia and skipping campaign rallies, political analysts say these off-year elections are a critical stress test for the durability of Trumpism beyond the presidential stage.
“Will those Trump voters become Republican voters?” asked Mike DuHaime, a veteran GOP strategist. The answer could shape the party’s strategy heading into the 2026 midterms—and beyond.
New Jersey: Can Trumpism Win Without Trump?
In New Jersey, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli has undergone a striking transformation. Once a policy-focused moderate who distanced himself from Trump in 2017, Ciattarelli now echoes the former president’s rhetoric—railing against “open borders,” appearing alongside far-right figures like Jack Posobiec, and embracing vaccine skepticism.
This pivot reflects a high-stakes gamble: that energizing the MAGA base can overcome New Jersey’s deep-blue lean. If successful, it would signal that Trump’s style—not just his persona—has lasting electoral power.
Why New Jersey Matters
New Jersey’s 2024 presidential results shocked many: Trump lost by under six points and flipped nearly every majority-Hispanic township—a swing averaging 25 percentage points from 2020. That seismic shift makes Tuesday’s governor’s race a crucial indicator of whether Trump’s coalition is a fleeting phenomenon or a durable realignment.
California’s Redistricting Gambit and Newsom’s 2028 Play
Meanwhile, in California, Governor Gavin Newsom is leveraging a state-level redistricting measure into national political capital. Framed as a counter to Trump’s mid-decade map changes, Proposition R could help Democrats gain up to five House seats in 2026.
But there’s more beneath the surface. Newsom raised a staggering $114 million in under three months—$38 million from small-dollar donors nationwide—building what he calls “the most valuable asset” of his career: a national email list primed for a potential 2028 presidential run.
The Surprising Shift in Latino Voting Patterns
One of the most underreported stories of 2024 was Trump’s gains among Latino voters—especially in diverse suburban and urban pockets of New Jersey. Democratic pollster Carlos Odio, who lives in the state, called Tuesday’s election “the first meaningful temperature check since the last election.”
If Ciattarelli performs strongly in Black and Latino neighborhoods—areas once considered Democratic strongholds—it could force both parties to rethink long-held assumptions about identity-based voting blocs.
Trump’s Last-Minute NYC Power Play
Even in New York City—where a Republican mayor is all but unthinkable—Trump couldn’t stay away. He reportedly urged Andrew Cuomo to run as an independent, floated job offers to incumbent Eric Adams (who later dropped out), and even threatened to slash federal funding if democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani wins.
While unlikely to change the outcome, Trump’s maneuvers reveal his intent to wield executive power as leverage—even in cities that reject him at the ballot box.
Sources
The New York Times: What Tuesday’s Elections Might Tell Us About Trump
