Exxon & Chevron Profits Drop—But They’re Still Pumping Oil

Exxon & Chevron Profits Drop Amid Low Oil Prices

Despite falling profits, Exxon Mobil and Chevron are refusing to pump the brakes on production. As oil prices hover near $60 a barrel, both energy giants are betting that continued output will shield them from market volatility.

Why Profits Are Slipping

Global oil prices have seesawed in recent weeks due to geopolitical tensions—including a fragile Gaza cease-fire and fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian energy exports. Yet by late October 2025, prices settled back around $60, a level that’s proving too low for robust earnings but still high enough to justify drilling.

According to internal reports:

Exxon’s output rose ~4% year-over-year in Q3 2025.
Chevron’s production jumped ~7%, excluding its recent Hess acquisition.

Oil Glut Meets Weak Demand

The world is swimming in oil. Global supply is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2025, while demand inches up just 0.9% (per UBS estimates). This imbalance is pressuring prices—and profits.

“Our cash flows from our assets are very resilient even in lower prices,” said Eimear Bonner, Chevron’s CFO, in a recent interview. She added that market cycles “don’t typically last for long periods of time,” signaling confidence in a rebound.

OPEC+ Joins the Fray

It’s not just U.S. producers flooding the market. The OPEC+ alliance—led by Saudi Arabia—is also ramping up output. A key meeting scheduled for Sunday, November 2, 2025, could greenlight even more barrels hitting global markets.

Why Keep Drilling?

For Exxon and Chevron, the math still works:

Metric	Exxon Mobil	Chevron
Q3 Production Increase	+4%	+7% (excl. Hess)
Breakeven Oil Price	~$45/barrel	~$48/barrel
2025 Capex Focus	U.S. Permian Basin	Permian + Guyana

With breakeven costs well below current market prices, both companies are prioritizing cash flow and shareholder returns over caution.

What’s Next for Oil Markets?

Analysts warn that without a significant demand surge—perhaps from a U.S. economic rebound or easing global trade tensions—prices could dip further. Yet energy majors appear unfazed, banking on their operational efficiency and diversified portfolios to weather the storm.